With the official presentation of the iPad, and the possible increase in the iPhone sales for new models that are coming soon, Morgan Stanley’s analyst predicts lower costs of ownership for the iPhone. This will influence Apple’s merchandise price for the years that follow.

On Friday Katy Huberty presented one of her patented risk-reward snapshots, regarding Apple’s iPhone. In her presentation she appeared to be optimistic, because she sees the two catalysts:

  • The iPad hits the market in March. She anticipates 6 million unit sales this year alone. This number is significantly higher the 3-4 Million Street anticipated sales.
  • New iPhones hit the market in June. She anticipates that the new iPhones will offer low total cost ownership and brand new functionalities; potentially gesture based technology.

Although she wasn’t clear enough in elaborating what the gesture-based technology is, or what she meant by it, the lower cost can come from the cost of the smart phone itself, or maybe from the monthly subscription pricing offered by the manufacturer’s partner carriers. In her snapshot, Huberty cited both factors as significant to gaining customers.

Huberty presented scenarios concerning Apple’s stock pricing. The optimistic scenario sees the selling price surge between $325 and $435 by 2012, depending on the balance between backing paid by the carriers and the global market share. Other, tamer scenarios see the price range between $180 and $250.